Technology Disruption: Energy, automobile, oil and other industries will be disrupted by 2021

These are the components leading to disruption in the automotive and related industries:

  • new technologies and technology convergence: batteries, electric vehicles, self-driving vehicles and solar PV
  • business model innovations, transport as a service not individual ownership
  • S-curve, exponential growth
  • 10x cost/performance advantage, technology cost curves

“Every time in history since the invention of the printed book has a 10x cost advantage lead to disruption… it is essentially a no-brainer.”

– Tony Seba

The value in the sector will be mainly in the vehicle operating systems, computing platforms and the TaaS platforms.

This is the report from RethinkX:

from the RethinkX report
this will mean the end of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) and individual ownership (IO)

Below some screenshots from Tony Seba’s presentations. It is terrible news for the traditional automobile, energy and oil industries but great news for many others and lots of new opportunities will arise.

TaaS- Transport as a service will make individual ownership obsolete.
huge opportunities for freed up parking spaces and less congestion on the roads.
and by 2030 TaaS will have 95% passenger miles
good news for the environment and traffic accidents. less so for insurers and road construction companies.

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